Gaza

In-Depth: Israel Kills Sinwar, by Accident

Huma Razvi

18 Oct 2024 — 8 min read

Screenshot from IDF video claims the man sitting in chair is Sinwar, moments before they struck the building, killing him (Source: IDF)

This week's top news: Israeli soldiers killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, with the U.S. quick to claim partial credit for the operation. Meanwhile, the U.S. issued a stern warning to Israel to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza or risk losing funding. And the presidential election is less than three weeks away.

Let's start with Sinwar.

Israeli soldiers killed Sinwar in Rafah on Wednesday, announcing his death the next day. Hamas confirmed Sinwar’s death on Friday.

What we know, so far:

Israeli soldiers from the Bislamach Brigade encountered Hamas fighters during a routine patrol on Wednesday. After an exchange of gunfire, some Hamas fighters were killed, while at least one escaped into a nearby building.

Israeli forces sent a drone to locate the remaining fighter, capturing footage of a man, face covered, sitting injured in a bombed-out structure. The man threw an object resembling a stick at the drone. In response, the Israeli unit shelled the building with tanks and missiles, killing the man, later identified as Sinwar according to Israeli authorities.

A pathologist who examined the body told CNN that Sinwar’s finger was removed posthumously and analyzed using DNA from his 23 years in Israeli prison. Sinwar had been released in 2011 in a prisoner swap.

REACTION

President Biden, in a written statement, credited U.S. assistance, saying, “the IDF relentlessly pursued Hamas’s leaders, flushing them out of their hiding places and forcing them onto the run.” He added that he had “directed [US] Special Operations personnel and our intelligence professionals to work side-by-side with their Israeli counterparts to help locate and track Sinwar.”

While in Berlin, Biden told reporters Sinwar’s death could be an opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza. “It’s time for this war to end and bring these hostages home.”

The White House quickly claimed partial credit for Sinwar’s killing, presenting him as the key obstacle to a ceasefire. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan praised the IDF’s success, describing the operation as one driven by both U.S. and Israeli intelligence, stating, “it was with American intelligence help that many of these leaders, including Sinwar, were hunted and tracked, flushed out of their hiding places, and put on the run.”

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller reinforced the narrative, emphasizing Sinwar’s refusal to negotiate a ceasefire. Biden later spoke with Netanyahu about how Sinwar’s death could create an opportunity to free hostages and end the conflict.

The White House’s framing is clear: U.S. intelligence, combined with Israeli military strength, took down the world’s most-wanted man, and Sinwar’s death could now pave the way for peace.

But Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly contradicted this narrative, insisting the war is far from over, calling it the “beginning of the end,” signaling his intent to continue military operations.

CRITICAL POINTS TO CONSIDER:

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Sinwar’s Death Was Not Due to a Targeted Operation: Despite official portrayals, four Israeli intelligence sources told the New York Times that Sinwar’s killing was a chance encounter during a routine patrol. This raises questions about the White House’s narrative of a calculated “operation” to eliminate him.

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Israel Struggled to Find Sinwar: Despite its advanced military and intelligence systems, including U.S. assistance, Israel failed for months to capture or kill Sinwar. The U.S. and Israeli officials depicted Sinwar as a mastermind hiding behind hostages, yet when found, Sinwar was alone, with no hostages, undermining the justification for his elusive survival. The New York Times confirmed that “no hostages were found with the fighters,” further calling into question the operational intelligence that delayed his capture.

The evolving narrative surrounding Sinwar’s death suggests that, rather than a masterstroke of military precision, it was more of a fortunate stumble.

“Because of the hostages, we are very careful with what we are doing. I believe if there were no such restrictions, we would have found him easier.” Former Mossad deputy director Ram Ben-Barak, The Guardian

WORTH A LOOK:

The AP on Sinwar's life and legacy:

And, Sinwar's last moments:

The Guardian article linked above is from a month ago but in the context of Sinwar's killing and the circumstances around it, it's a fascinating and enlightening read. For example, former Israeli intelligence officer Michael Milshstein on Sinwar:

"It is in his basic DNA to stay in Gaza and to fight until death. He will prefer to die in his bunker.”

"After almost 50 years of assassinations, we understand this is a basic part of the game. Sometimes it is necessary to assassinate a very prominent leader. But when you start to think it will be a gamechanger and that an ideological organisation will collapse because you kill one of its leaders, that is a total mistake... I’m quite sure that someone will replace, or actually has already replaced, Mohammed Deif, and if Sinwar is killed there will be someone else … You cannot create a fantasy. It will not end the war.”

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris said “just has been served” and also claimed it was a chance to end the war. Unlike Biden, Harris did state that she supports the rights of Palestinians saying she will work for “peace, dignity, and security for all.”

THE LEAK

Before Sinwar's killing, the U.S. warned Israel to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or risk losing U.S. funding, according to reports this week from Israeli News 12 and Axios’ Barak Ravid.

In a leaked memo, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Israel’s “recent actions” are “contributing to an accelerated deterioration in the conditions of Gaza.” They gave Israel 30 days to implement changes aimed at improving the situation.

The memo specifically accuses Israel of imposing “burdensome and excessive” restrictions on imports and hindering the movement of humanitarian organizations and aid.

Since October 1, Israel has severely restricted humanitarian aid, with nearly all assistance to Palestinians, particularly in northern Gaza, being cut off. According to Reuters, “[t]he shift has driven the flow of goods arriving in Gaza to its lowest level since the start of the war.”

Around 400,000 Palestinians in northern Gaza are facing extreme food shortages, with the risk of starvation growing.
The UN reports critical shortages of fuel needed for hospitals, bakeries, ambulances, and water facilities.
Between October 1 and October 16, daily shipments to Gaza, including aid and commercial goods, averaged just 29 trucks, according to COGAT.
Before the war, an average of 500 trucks entered Gaza daily; between May and September, that number dropped to 175.

Israel argues that Hamas diverts aid for military purposes, selling it at inflated prices, though there is no evidence to support this claim. Even if such diversion occurred, collective punishment of civilians by denying them humanitarian aid is a war crime under international law. Hamas denies the accusations.

In case this narrative falls short, Israel has also claimed it has already done enough. Israeli UN envoy Danny Danon told the UN Security Council that Israel has “fed Gaza as much as possible,” stating that over one million tonnes of supplies have entered Gaza since the war began.

This is not the first time Israel has been accused of blocking aid. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s inflammatory remarks about treating Palestinians in Gaza like “human animals” after October 7 underscored Israel’s hardline stance.

On-the-ground observers, such as USAID’s Samantha Power and Sen. Chris van Hollen, have criticized Israel’s intentional obstruction of aid, even when it was allowed to enter. Israel’s ongoing attacks have destroyed much of the aid, and hundreds of Palestinians, along with aid workers, have been killed trying to reach it. Source

With a presidential election weeks away, the timing of this “leak” raises questions. Could this be a strategic move to help Vice President Harris by demonstrating a firm U.S. stance on Israel, aimed at winning over frustrated voters?

Alternatively, the leaked memo might be a CYA move. U.S. laws, like the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, require recipients of military aid to facilitate humanitarian assistance. Biden’s National Security Memorandum 20 (NSM-20), issued in early 2024, mandates that countries receiving U.S. security aid provide written assurances within 45 days to allow aid deliveries.

Despite these legal requirements and Israel’s alleged failure to comply, there’s no sign the U.S. has withheld aid from Israel. While the U.S. has issued warnings and set conditions before, aid to Israel continues uninterrupted.

MORE FROM GAZA & THE MIDDLE EAST

Over the weekend, Israel continued its brutal assault on Gaza, killing at least 73 in one strike in northern Gaza. And to further terrorize residents, they dropped leaflets with images of Sinwar's dead body over Gaza claiming: "Hamas will no longer rule Gaza," Reuters reports.

Fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continued over the weekend. Israel says Hezbollah targeted one of the Netanyahus' homes; Hezbollah did not claim responsibility. No casualties or damage were reported.

WORTH A READ

Ever wonder how the AP calls races on election night? The Washington Post explains how winners are "called."

This year, the news service will call 6,823 winners — assuming no races go to runoffs — including winners in every statewide, House and state legislative race. It’s a massive endeavor, involving more than 5,000 people, and one that the AP internally refers to as 'the single largest act of journalism that exists,' says Executive Editor Julie Pace.

At its heart, calling an election sounds like solving a word problem in fourth-grade math: It’s election night, and the polls are closed. Ballots are still being tallied, and one candidate is currently behind. At this point, is it possible for the trailing candidate to overtake the lead and win?

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